Editor's note: James Smith is CEO of Aegis Trust
and Freddy Mutanguha is Country Director for Aegis in Rwanda, and a
survivor of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The Trust is an international
organizational working to prevent genocide. The opinions expressed in
this commentary are solely those of James Smith and Freddy Mutanguha.
(CNN) -- Several mass graves have been discovered, at least 1,000 people are dead and tens of thousands have been displaced in South Sudan as a recent outbreak of inter-ethnic violence has Africa's newest nation on the brink of civil war and possibly genocide.
At the time of South
Sudan's independence in July of 2011 -- free from Sudan and recovering
from decades of civil war -- hopes were high.
Southern Sudanese
referred to their new country as the Promised Land. There were fears
that Sudan might seek to undermine the new nation's stability, but
analysts cautioned the greatest threats to peace could come from within
the country's own borders.
As tensions rise between
the South Sudan's two largest ethnic groups, the Dinka and Nuer,
commentators are now recalling the events in Rwanda with reference to
this crisis.
South Sudan's youngest victims
Twenty years ago, in the
New Year of 1994, reports warned of the threat of genocide in Rwanda as
the radical Hutu government incited hatred against the Tutsi.
South Sudan on edge
Less than six months
later, the government of Rwanda had organized the murder of their Tutsi
civilians, leaving around a million dead.
Kiir: African leaders should've helped
Preventing a devastating
civil war from gripping South Sudan is urgent, but focus must also be
given to preventing genocide, which is a high risk should instability in
the country deepen.
The intentional nature of
genocide and the attempt to destroy groups based on their ethnic,
religious or national identity, make it a uniquely horrific crime and
one that the international community has committed itself to prevent and
punish.
Rwanda's not too distant past provides a warning that there is no time for complacency in South Sudan
Freddy Mutanguha and James Smith
Freddy Mutanguha and James Smith
Fear of escalating
violence in South Sudan has led the United Nations Security Council to
increase the peace-keeping operation in Sudan by a further 5,500
personnel.
In the experience of one of the authors, who lost many of his family in Rwanda 1994, they are right to do so.
According to genocide
scholar, Barbara Harff, the risk of mass atrocities increases with
political instability, the existence of an autocratic regime, a
dominating ethnic group and previous genocide or massacres.
All of these factors
were present in Rwanda preceding the genocide and are now present in
South Sudan. Should South Sudan become entrenched in civil war, the risk
of mass atrocities occurring will increase significantly.
While the parallels
between Rwanda and South Sudan are not identical, they share some of the
same warning signs, which we have outlined below:
The current crisis in South Sudan began as a power struggle between President Salva Kiir, originating from Sudan's Dinka majority, and its former Vice President Riek Machar of the Nuer tribe.
Machar was ousted from his position by Kiir in July along with the rest of the cabinet.
The situation came to a
violent head on December 15 when rival army factions loyal to the two
leaders first clashed in the country's capital of Juba.
Inside a refugee camp in South Sudan.
The conflict has since
spread throughout several states. Both sides have been accused of
targeting members of the opposing ethnic group.
Chaos continues to unfold in South Sudan
While different in the detail, power struggles mixed with an ethnic dimension was a feature in Rwanda in 1994.
South Sudan could learn also how in Rwanda, resilience against violence is being reinforced at a community level
Freddy Mutanguha and James Smith
Freddy Mutanguha and James Smith
Aside from the civil
war, in which the Tutsi dominated Rwanda Patriotic Front were attempting
to oust the Hutu Power government, there was an extremist factions
within the ruling Hutu regime who consolidated its power by killing many
Hutu opposition members as that same time as the genocide against the
Tutsi began.
Massacres have already taken place in South Sudan.
As we saw in Rwanda, massacres of Tutsis occurred long before all out genocide, but failed to be seem as an alarm.
In South Sudan, the
discovery of one mass grave in the town of Bentiu and two more outside
of the capital should be viewed as indication of what could continue or
escalate if the situation stays on its current trajectory.
In a concerning development, an armed rebel militia has
now entered the fray in South Sudan. The militia -- known as the "White
Army" for dusting their bodies with ash -- is reportedly composed of
25,000 Nuer youth and is suspected of being aligned with the rebel army
and Machar.
The White Army attacked a
United Nations peacekeeping base that was sheltering civilians, killing
several peacekeepers on December 19.
The group has been known to make statements about their intent to wipe out members of rival ethnic groups.
In Rwanda, a militia
aligned with the Hutu-led government known as the Interhamwe, expressed a
similar ideology to the White Army and was harnessed by the political
leaders to commit genocide.
The root causes of the crisis in South Sudan are deep set, but not insurmountable.
While there are
differences in the context of the two crises, Rwanda's not too distant
past provides a warning that there is no time for complacency in South
Sudan.
But, we should not only
look back 20 years for lessons. South Sudan should look to Rwanda 20
years after the genocide to see how governance, rule of law and
leadership have enabled development.
South Sudan could learn
also how in Rwanda, resilience against violence is being reinforced at a
community level through peace education that works to overcome the
hostility and fear between groups and to develop an identity and purpose
based not on tribe, but on the nation.
To do this takes true
leadership from all concerned. Let us hope, that for the sake of South
Sudan's people, their leaders will not come to realize the solution to
creating sustainable peace after countless dead have been buried.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of James Smith and Freddy Mutanguha.
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